MyDD :: RCP Electoral Map: McCain by 10

by venician on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 07:50:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I see your last prediction came true also:

Clinton will have a 100+ delegate lead after 2/5

by kristoph on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:07:45 PM EST
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I am not predicting anything (mainly because I was so wrong before, as you aptly - and unceremoniously - note).

I am just asking why it's happening. What is Obama doing or not doing that is causing this slide?

(I think the point that was gently trying to be conveyed was: 'You don't scare me')

by QTG on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:11:57 PM EST
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by venician on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:26:24 PM EST
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Zerosumgame will you STOP will the TR abuse.

Lame (2.00 / 1)

The "the sky is falling" comment is really getting old. People are worried- and for good reason. If you don't like the worry- don't read. Why insult valid comments?

Childish.

by easyE on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:19:33 PM EST
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Re: Lame (none / 0)

So now you decide what comments are valid?

by venician on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:38:16 PM EST
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I uprated you because of the diarists misrepresentation, which I now put into evidence:

"McCain is now projected by RCP to win the electoral college by 10."

Which is inflammatory and inaccurate. RCP is not predicting a McCain victory. They are reporting the results of a poll taken more than 2 months out from the Election and prior to the Conventions and any debates.

Fear mongering is not immune from smack down.

by QTG on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:26:59 PM EST
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by venician on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:31:30 PM EST
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Thank you QTG, and might I say that it seems to me none of these polls are polling recently registered voters nor people who only have cell phones.

That and a plethora of other evidence has immunized me against fear mongering, especially when all I'm am being asked to do / scolded for not doing is not being concerned/worried enough.

I've never like a buzzkill. Not about to start.

by QTG on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:42:53 PM EST
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by kristoph on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 11:51:43 PM EST
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I am sorry if you felt the title was unbalanced. This was not my intent.

But seriously, Obama was up by like 70 30 days ago. Today he is down by 10.

That's a fact, right? Ok I accept some polls may be off or whatever but an 80 point shift is a trend.

you tell me. (none / 0)

"Democracy! Bah! When I hear that I reach for my feather Boa!" Allen Ginsberg

by canadian gal on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 07:51:18 PM EST

Re: RCP Electoral Map: McCain by 10 (2.00 / 2)

It's happening because Obama is a polarizing candidate who has yet to connect with "middle america" voters, while McCain has a natural advantage with that constituency. Moreover, recent international events do not play to Obama's advantage.

Basically, in a year where generic Democrat wins by double digits in elections, Obama is tied for the presidency.

by reggie44pride on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 07:54:04 PM EST

Right (none / 0)

Generic Democrat would never survive the "He's too generic!" smear campaign.

Generic Democrat is only winning because nobody's spent any time tearing Generic Democrat down.

Trust me, Generic Democrat would be just as fucked as anyone else at this stage of the game.

The pebbles have voted and the avalanche has begun.

President-Elect "That One"

by Dracomicron on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:11:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Unfortunately (2.00 / 1)

Generic Democrat didn't run for President this year.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:25:57 PM EST
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Re: Unfortunately (none / 0)

There is no generic democrat. That politician does not exist. They all have their strengths and weaknesses. Hillary Clinton is not a generic democrat. If she had won the nomination I imagine she would be polling about as well as Obama right now. She certainly wouldn't be out front by 15 points as some people seem to expect our nominee to be.

by Skaje on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:39:04 PM EST
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That's my point (2.00 / 1)

The majority of the county wants a Democratic President, many of them just don't want Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.

The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.

by nrafter530 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:45:15 PM EST
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On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....

I think we are probably a day away from the first:

"McCain will win in a Reagan Landslide"

Diary here.

This place is becoming NoQuarter Jr. depending on the time of day....

by WashStateBlue on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 07:58:04 PM EST

mydd map vs others? (2.00 / 1)

Why does the electoral map here on mydd not reflect the latest poll results like RCP does?

by reggie44pride on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 07:59:31 PM EST

by jrsygrl on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:04:42 PM EST

Seriously I don't understand why issues can't be discussed and how to deal with them. It is very troubling to the cause that in these current times a Democratic nominee is not outpolling the GOP. You couldn't have an election on a silver platter more. So either the situation is faced head on & worked on or blissfully ignored while we live with another how many years of worsening hell.

No it beyond pisses me off that people are too busy being defensive to not want to deal with the reality & the prospect of having to live with the ramifications of this is sickening. There is no excuse for things to be this close & something NEEDS to be done about it.

by kristoph on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:13:03 PM EST
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Yes, well, I agree but, more generally, I'd just like to find out what people think is happening.

Obama has not really done anything badly, McCain has not done anything especially well, so what's the deal?

Where is this 'shift' (and I appreciate it's magnitude is debatable) coming from?

]{

by jrsygrl on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:22:34 PM EST
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I disagree. I don't think the DNC has been going about things very well at all, which is why things are still close to a very vulnerable McCain. It isn't magic; there are usually reasons behind why things go wrong.

The reality is this (2.00 / 2)

This person is cherry picking a poll with no toss up where no one in their right mind would count a .5% lead with a 4 point margin of error as significant. Also, people kee bringing up generic Democrats vs. Generic Republicans as an example of Obama underperforming, which is just moronic because the generic Republican doesn't register low 60 approval like McCain does in any poll. If you want to debate facts, bring them, but if you're going to be an intellectually dishonest shitstirrer, then you get a like response. For those who like Democratic representation, here's a rallying cry: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5q-Jnj-hZ zs

by Dog Chains on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:19:14 PM EST
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All I know is (2.00 / 1)

I certainly feel a fire under my ass lately.

I really couldn't feel less enthusiastic about Obama right now, but compared to McCain well... I have 4 year old twin sons, I was holding them in my arms as infants 4 years ago when Bush won his second term. I never want that helpless, hopeless feeling ever again. McCain must not win.

Seeing McCain gaining strength has kicked me into action. I've always known that I would vote for Obama, now I am also giving money and looking into volunteering for his campaign. For my sons.

Instead of wringing your hands and worrying, get to work! What are you doing to defeat McCain?

I live in NY, which should be solid blue but Obama is even slipping here. The current Siena poll for NY shows Obama at 47 to McCain's 39 percent, which is down from 50-37 percent in July and 51-33 percent in June. Obama's lead has fallen from 18 points in June to 8 points today.

Of course Obama will win NY but for some reason that poll really made me see how vulnerable Obama is to McCain and how much work we all must be doing!

"Life is too short, time is too precious, and the stakes are too high to dwell on what might have been." Hillary Rodham Clinton - June 7, 2008

by twinmom on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:14:21 PM EST

Re: All I know is (none / 0)

Good for you, twinmom. You express my sentiments.

Purity! Or else!

by ChitownDenny on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:40:54 PM EST
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by Spanky on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:21:50 PM EST

Remember, all Obama has to do is keep all the Kerry states and win New Mexico and two small states or one of the swing states such as Colorado, Ohio, Florida, or Indiana. Obama is only down 2 in Florida. I still think Obama is going to win Ohio and Florida and Colorado and Virginia. Not going to win Indiana or Missouri. He will probably win Montana, and ND too.

by jrsygrl on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:24:09 PM EST
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OH is important & unfortunately he was less likely to pick that state up, which was one of the arguments in the primary IIRC. So how do we make an OH and FL more likely since they are more realistic then some of the other states that have been tossed around as in play.

Doooomed I tell you (2.00 / 1)

Dooomed!

by UrbanRedneck on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:33:02 PM EST

Re: Doooomed I tell you (2.00 / 1)

Mojo'd primarily for the subtle and artistic 'o' diminuendo which enhances the scariness with the use of a classic, if little known, Hitchcock technique.

Redneck? I don't think so.....

by QTG on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:49:00 PM EST
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Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

Pollster has Obama still up
Fivethirtyeight has Obama still up

RCP has NH as a toss up? BS

by jsfox on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:55:57 PM EST

by bruh3 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:58:52 PM EST
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exactly- it also has MN as a toss up. Electorally it has MI not favoring Obama too I believe. RCP is good for the news, not the analysis.

by bruh3 on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 08:57:49 PM EST

Did you read the numbers ? Just curious- because many of them that are considered toss ups like MN are in fact in Obama's favor. Also other that are toss up like OH are either tie or +2 Obama. The race is tight, but this is a bit much.