The latest numbers from Indiana were just released by SurveyUSA. McCain now has a solid 6 point lead (a 7 point change over a 60 day period).
McCain is now projected by RCP to win the electoral college by 10.
The just published CA exit poll has Clinton at 50.8, Obama at 44.6 excluding mail in votes.
The political futures markets (intrade) are moving heavily today. Here are the predictions
Clinton: NY, NJ, MA, AZ, AR, MO, NM, TN
Obama: CA, GA, IL, AL, KS, CO, MN, UT
Tossup: CT, ND, DE, ID, AK
Note the CA prediction, which was trending Clinton this morning, moved almost immediately after the release of the Field Poll data.
I will update as changes occur.
I've become a poll junky :-( I know it's sad. I'll get rehab after this contest is over.
National:
Rasmussen - Clinton: 45 Obama: 37
( +2 for Clinton since yesterday )
IL:
Chicago Tribune - Obama: 55 Clinton: 24
AL:
Rasmussen - Clinton: 46 Obama: 41
InsiderAdvatage - Clinton 46 Obama: 40
TN:
Rasmussen - Clinton: 49 Obama: 35
MO:
Rasmussen - Clinton: 47 Obama: 38
A number of recent diaries on MyDD and OpenLeft created a rather rancorous debate over the current state of the democratic nomination race.
In an attempted to address some of the debate point I have assembled a delegate battle-card that, hopefully, addresses a number of various posters concerns.
The battle-card forecasts delegate allocation up-to and including Tsunami Tuesday (but excluding FL and MI).
Summary:
Clinton will have a 100+ delegate lead after 2/5.
The final SurveyUSA poll of people who either have voted or are expected to vote in todays primary in Florida.
Hillary Clinton 52%
Barack Obama 28%
John Edwards 13%
It is interesting to note that neither the SC results nor the Kennedy Endorsement has had an impact. In fact, Clinton's spread increased by 4% in the last 24 hours.
Most striking is the fact that over 80% of Latino Democrats voted for Clinton, with 8% remaining undecided. Only 8% of Latino voters support Barack Obama. Obama did win almost 70% of the African American voters.
The latest Tsunami Tuesday polls, take before the SC result, show Clinton will a double digit lead in all states (for which polls are available) except Illinois.
The bulk of the mainstream media is focusing on race as the voters of South Carolina head to the polls today.
· Draft DavidNYC for Senate (Jonathan Singer)
· LA-04: Dick Ain't Done Yet ... (DailyKingFish)
· GA-Sen: Libertarian Allen Buckley Speaks Out on Georgia Senate Run-Off (Senate Guru)
· Wish Gov. Dean a "Happy Birthday" (Matt Ortega)
· IA-Gov 2010: Will any Democrat challenge Culver? (desmoinesdem)
· Young Dems use Facebook to slay cranky old Republicans (MediaCzech)
· OH-15: Debating Provisional Ballots (Sandwich Repairman)
· More 2010 Manuevers in Louisiana (DailyKingFish)
· MN-Gov / MN-01: Walz considers gubernatorial run (MN Campaign Report)
· NV-Sen: Republican Challenger for Harry Reid Emerges (Sven at My Silver State)
· Keith Ellison (D-MN) is up for Progressive Caucus chair (MN Campaign Report)
· Organic Consumers Association against Vilsack for Ag Secretary (desmoinesdem)
